SHOT Show!

The SHOT SHOW launches next week for 2018.  Stay tuned for updates from the floor, as well as reviews from the major figures at the show.

The Crisis after the Crisis...

Clearly, the gun price bubble has popped and the ammo bubble shows every sign of "rapid deflation" as well.  I'm finding ammunition on the shelves of Walmart and sporting goods stores again in all of the major calibers, (unless I want .22LR, of course. )  The frantic buying that led to my tricked out AR being worth two or three times what I paid for it has passed, and I can find enough ammo to shoot at the range again without breaking the bank.  I almost want to say "whew, glad that's over."  But the pain of a bubble bursting usually lasts longer and gets more painful than the run-up to irrational pricing, supply limits, and lifestyle disruption that typifies the bubble in the first place.

In early 2000, the Internet bubble bursting didn't just hurt the silly stocks like WebVan and Pets.com, (stupid sock puppet.)  It took down the stocks of major companies like Cisco, Dell, IBM, and HP as well.  Many have never recovered to pre-bubble periods.  That stock market took years to return to a nominal long term rate of return, and though many "insiders" made a bunch of money in the ups and downs, most middle class investors putting money into their retirement accounts lost a lot of real money and took years to recover.  

The housing bubble of 2008 led to a financial crisis that rocked the world economy.  Millions of Americans lost their homes, ruined their credit, and squandered their life savings.  An entire generation of young adults is now underemployed because it has taken so long to recover from such a massive disruption.  Their earning prospects likely put them in a category of not doing as well as their parents, a poor legacy for their parents' generation, indeed.

The lesson:  Bubbles burst and blow crap all over the place when they do.

The same is true of the broader gun market.   The ultra hot gun market from 2010-2012 and the ammo market that extended that streak were bubbles.  Hyper inflation and irrational prices, inventory hoarding, disruption to manufacturing and distribution.  All of these factors indicate a bubble.   What effects can we expect to see?

I'm guessing that we'll soon see a glut of low priced guns, even from quality manufacturers because they need to get rid of their inventory, even at fire sale prices.   I have been seeing lots of "value priced" .380 carry guns on the market, frequently priced $100-$150 lower than I saw just several weeks or months ago.  Top names like Ruger and Remington ramped up major investments in manufacturing capacity and turned out new models like the .380 guns to suit the rabid demand of the bubble economy.  Those companies have to keep those machines alive, but they clearly can't sustain market pricing leverage.

Take this random example.  Windham Weaponry builds high quality ARs in the US with top quality parts and by top quality gunsmiths.  At their launch at the peak of "black gun" hysteria, Windham was selling their ARs for $1500 all the way to $2000+.  The offer in Cheaper than Dirt this week offers a top quality rifle for $605.

At first glance, someone might think "Cool, a great AR at rock bottom prices."  I'd invite you to ask how long Windham can continue to make money selling their rifles as such steeply discounted prices.  And, Windham isn't alone.  Many manufacturers are pumping out firearms at fire sale prices. You've seen the offers:  Ruger .380s for $299, Remington 1911s under $700, quality .308 rifles under $400.

Why does this happen?  Simple laws of economics tell us that when demand is high, manufacturers can sell things for higher prices.  If everyone wants what you have to sell, you can increase prices and sell everything you make.  On the other hand, if prices are falling, that means demand is falling, and fewer and fewer people are trying to buy your goods.

What happened during the "bubble" in gun and ammo prices?  A whole lot of people went out and bought guns, that's what.  A big chunk of that demand was probably irrational.  We all went to the gun shows and heard gun sellers tell you to buy now "before the government takes them away."  The hysteria that drove people to buy an AR who might need have considered owning one before, also drove interested AR buyers to purchase one or two of the black guns.  Gun sales were so high for 2010-2013 that I'm not sure there are many customers left to buy guns for a while.

That's what happens in a bubble.  Take the housing markets.  For a time from 2004-2008, demand for housing was so high that sellers could charge more for their house than it was probably worth.  A LOT of people bought houses that they might not have been able to afford.  A ton of people also bought more than one home for "investment purposes" hoping to flip it later for profit.  A lot of those homes are in the banks hands today, and none of the nation's top housing markets have seen prices return to pre-crisis levels.

What about that guy who bought a new AR in 2010 because he heard that Obama was going to take away his right to own it?   A couple of weeks after he bought the rifle, no gun shop had any to sell, so when he finally saw a few hit the shelves in early 2011, he bought two more for "investment purposes."  He was going to hold onto them while prices kept rising, then sell them for an easy profit.  A lot of people thought the same way, and AR prices kept going up for a time.

Right up until those prices came down, and when they did, prices fell HARD.  Problem is that the market took out all the regular buyers.  It's pretty safe to say that most people who were going to buy an AR before 2013 already bought one, so the people who bought extras to sell didn't have a market any more.  Sure, one or two people you know might have sold their extra AR for a few bucks, but, I'm sure that most of those guys are looking at their gun safes with one or two pristine guns that are now worth a fraction of their purchase price.  Who wants to sell a $2500 gun for $800?  Not me.

And, what about the gun shop owners?  The perverse thing about the bubble is that only the big guys did okay.  Ruger and Remington made a LOT of money.  Big national and regional chains made a ton, too, because their buying power and their standard pricing kept them in profit.  However, a bunch of small independent gun store owners struggled during the boom years.  While prices were rising, gun shops couldn't get as many guns or ammo to sell.  Hoarding created shortages, and there was nothing to sell for a long time.  Now that supply is coming back into the stores, fewer people need to buy a new gun.  They already bought one, or two, or three.  What's a gun store owner able to sell?

My guess is that the result of the bubble bursting is that a bunch of small independent gun dealers are going to go out of business.  They couldn't keep their stores open, or they can't afford to sell only ammo and no guns, or their markets just got saturated with too much supply and too little demand, and they can't compete with Dick's, Walmart, and Sports Authority.

As the bubble seems to be settling out, I suspect that many gun manufacturers are going to fade away, as well.  Do we really need more .380 concealed carry guns?  5 options, 10, no 15 different guns?  Really?  Will Windham Weaponry be able to survive in a market where they need to sell a $605 rifle through an online retailer just to keep the doors open, or will they have to lay off people, or close entirely?  Windham might be the survivor because of their quality, but I have to believe that its pretty hard to keep up quality and pay the wages for well trained gunsmiths when you have to sell a rifle for $605 retail.  There's just not much margin left in that low price to pay high quality people a market wage.

We'll probably end this bubble with fewer independent gun stores and fewer manufacturers and a much smaller gun industry, overall.  The big guys might remain, but probably with fewer models and less supply.  A few very top quality shops may survive, but the middle tier of the market will likely go away.  It will return to how the market was in 2005 or so, and maybe get to a nominal growth level again after the number of new gun owners finally matches the rate of supply.  That's the thing about bubbles.  In the inflationary period, supply gets to be so huge that after the bubble bursts it can take years to work all of the excess inventory out of the system.

I hope Windham survives.  I hear they make a great gun.  I'll never know because even at $605, I won't be buying one.  Who needs more than one AR?  Not as many people as those that currently own two or three, that's for sure.

Best Choice for Concealed Carry

Kevin Michalowki at Gun Digest offered an article on the classic gun store argument of Revolver vs. semi-auto pistol for concealed carry.  He starts with an interesting premise – it’s a great question to start an argument among gun enthusiasts.  Unfortunately, he finishes his article with the great equalizer, “you decide.”

I don’t see the point of framing both sides of the debate over which type of gun to choose for concealed carry: revolver or semi-auto pistol.  In my view, you have three general requirements for a good carry weapon, and there’s a definitive reason for making a clear choice.

Let’s start with the “concealed” elements of concealed carry.  Yes, you can carry a revolver in a concealed fashion.  You can carry a revolver on your hip in a really good concealment holster, but to avoid printing your wheel gun, you will need to wear concealment clothing.   Inconvenient and uncomfortable in the summer months, challenging for the rest of the year.    Any big revolver prints through light shirts easily, so many people use jackets or vests.  Pick a shooter’s vest, like so many hardcore types, and you may as well wear a sign that says “I’m carrying a gun.”  Not a smart idea.

Of course, many revolver fans choose the ankle holster, but that option severely limits your gun selection to the range of snubbies available.   The Ruger LCR offers a small light frame in .38 or .357, and several quality holsters for your ankle.  Unfortunately, I don’t know too many firearm instructors, and no combat instructors who recommend the ankle holster as the most effective means to carry a gun.

For less than the cost of a quality revolver hip holster, I can buy a kydex holster that effectively conceals virtually any mid sized or compact semi-auto.  I can carry inside the pants with a tuck in holster without bulging my pants, and with the range of quality mid-sized and compact handguns available, the semi-auto format offers a much wider array of choices to conceal comfortably, effectively, and safely.  No worries of printing the gun.  No challenges with awkward ankle carry.  No problems with an ankle holster failing while I’m walking or running.   Semi-auto gets my vote for concealment options, price and effectiveness.

As Michalowski reminds us, the first rule of a gun fight is to have a gun.  I would add that we need to carry enough gun.  I won’t argue the case for revolver calibers versus semi-auto pistol calibers.  Manufacturers have been creative recently launching several high quality revolvers in pistol calibers like 9mm, .40 S&W, and .45 ACP.  No questions about the calibers available.

No, I’m talking about capacity.  5 rounds of .357 in a Ruger LCR is great, but by any reasonable definition, 16 rounds of .40 S&W or 19 rounds of 9mm or 13 rounds of .45 ACP is BETTER.  Yes, statistics suggest that most engagements involving civilians and firearms result in 3-6 shots being fired.  Do you want to be in the one fight that requires 8 rounds, but you don’t have it?    I err on the side of capacity, which makes me ready for any battle, not just the statistically average one.

In that worst case scenario, my final selection criteria comes into play, reloading.  With an affordable modern semi-auto pistol in 9mm, I can comfortably carry the firearm and 38 rounds of 9mm on my belt.  I can draw, fire, reload, and continue firing with only a few seconds of delay during my reload time.  With a revolver, the mechanics of the reload make the strongest case available for carrying the pistol instead.  Even with intense practice and reloading devices, the above average concealed permit holder cannot meet the reload efficiency of a semi-auto pistol.

For me, the concealability, capacity, and efficient reloading mechanics of the modern semi-auto pistol makes it the obvious and overwhelming best choice over even the best revolvers.  I can think of a few situations where carrying a revolver makes an acceptable compromise choice.  I’ve even carried a Ruger LCR as a pocket gun on occasion, but those events are fringe cases and leave me less prepared in the event I’m called upon to use a firearm to defend myself or my family.  If you are serious about carrying the best choice for concealed protection, I recommend a semi-auto pistol.  

When Zombies Attack...

What should your personal gun vault look like if you want to prepare for a zombie attack?

Glock 9mm

One of two “no brainer” guns in my Zombie gun locker is a Glock 9mm, and it doesn’t really matter what model.  The beauty of the Glock obtains in its modularity and ubiquity.   Any 9mm magazine works  in any 9mm model of a smaller capacity, so a G17 mag will fit in a G19 or G26, but not in reverse.  If a trigger breaks in the G19, I can cannibalize an old and broken G17 for a replacement.  Parts are wildly interchangeable across multiple platforms.  And, virtually any cop has a Glock on his or her hip, so finding Glocks should be as simple as finding a police station in Zombieland.  Stock up on 9mm, grab as many big mags as possible, and shoot for the head.

An alternative would be to find a G37, 38, or 39 in .45 ACP, but those guns are MUCH more rare than the 9mm models.  The G22, 23, 24, 27, and 35 should be in greater supply, and .40 S&W ammo is nearly as plentiful among LEOs in Zombieland, but the 9mm is my first choice.

Remington 870

Shotguns and Zombies go together like coffee and doughnuts, so when the Zombies start knocking on my door, I’ll have my Remington 870 knocking right back at them.  The Remington 870 pump action shares many of the same qualities as the Glock in a great Zombie-gun.  You can feed it anything, it rarely breaks, and if it does, replacements are everywhere. 

Slugs, double ought, or birdshot; the 870 feeds on virtually any shells and keeps on going.  If you hear a click instead of a bang, just pump the 870 and fire again.  With fewer moving parts to fail, and rock solid simple engineering, the Remington 870 performs like Old Faithful.  If you break a stock or bend a barrel defending yourself from a crazy Zombie, a new 870, or at least some replacement parts, are as close as your local Walmart Sporting Goods department.  More than 10 million 870’s have been produced, and it holds the record for the bestselling shotgun in the history of the world.  That kind of availability makes the Remington 870 my choice in Zombieland.

You might be tempted to use a semi-auto bird gun for the extra speed.  Remember, Zombies aren’t usually fast, just plentiful.  Semi-auto is great when you are tracking a brace of fast moving ducks or pigeons, but pump guns are just fine for Zombies.  Also, with semi-auto actions come more moving parts and a higher failure rate of equipment.  I will stick with the unglamorous but eminently reliable 870 pump action.

AK-47

In the real world, I’m a total  AR-fanboy.  I have a terrific Rock River DEA gun that I’ve tricked out with the EOTech holosight, a Surefire LED flashlight, a new Magpul grip and a Magpul CTR adjustable stock.  It’s a pimped out nail driver to 200 yards, and I can score solid hits to over 500 yards any day of the week. 

But, in Zombieland, I need to remember that the AR platform needs cleaning, shoots the intermediate 5.56mm cartridge, and has tight tolerances that don’t always benefit from the rough and tumble fight against the Zombie hordes.  I’ll trade the distance and general accuracy of the far superior AR platform for the looser tolerances and harder hitting cartridge of the AK.

There’s a reason that most certified gun nuts and retired Special Forces guys still put the AK at the top of their list of battle rifles.  It fires the 7.62 x 39mm round, a .30 caliber rifle cartridge with far superior stopping power and terminal ballistics of the intermediate 5.56mm cartridge in the AR.  The AK was built commonly of stamped parts to looser tolerances, and the gas system accepts virtually any ammo.  My AR, as good as it is, still suffers from ammo related issues.  Reports indicate that the piston ARs, which run cooler and cleaner, can be even more finicky with ammo than the direct-impingement gas guns.  Not the AK.  You can feed it any .308 out there, and she’ll run.  Finally, the AK beats even the Glock for ubiquity.   They are literally everywhere, and have become the most immediately recognizable global icon for a rifle.  When the chips are down in Zombieland, I’ll leave my AR in the safe and grab any old AK for comfort.

Scout Rifle

Once the power runs out , the freezers at Walmart run down, and all the meat in the fridge spoils, hunting will become more important for the few of us survivors to keep well fed.  I will channel my inner Jeff Cooper and reach for my Scout Rifle instead of the AK.  Cooper thought that rifles in the late 20^th Century varied only slightly from arms created nearly a century before, and argued that if one could have only one gun, it should be a general purpose bolt action rifle with sufficient capacity and power to work equally well at hunting and fighting.  His rifle musings became the Scout Rifle, the latest generation of which from Ruger holds true to Cooper’s concepts.

The Ruger Gunsite Scout Rifle is chambered in .308, has a bolt action, comes equipped with M1 style fixed sights, but also a rail system mounted ahead of the chamber to accept a scope for more precision shots.  The box magazine holds 5 or 10 rounds giving it sufficient capacity to handle deer or the odd Zombie found in the woods.   With M1 style sights or a mounted optic, the Scout tackles zombies or game out to bolt rifle distances.  Best of all, it shares ammo with the AK, so I won’t need to hoard too many different calibers for my gun safe.

Back Up Gun

If the AK gums up, and the Glock trigger spring fails, and I can’t find a shell for my 870 or the Scout rifle, I’ll want to have a drop dead reliable wheel gun as a back up.  I’d pick the Ruger LCR in .357.  It’s light, dependable, and can fire the .357 or .38+P rounds.  I can put it in an ankle holster, hide it in my pocket, or tuck it in a backpack for safekeeping.  In the end, with just 5 rounds in the chamber, it won’t keep me safe against a Zombie horde, but I will have enough capacity to take out at least 4 of the monsters before using the last round to avoid becoming a Zombie’s Happy Meal.

Forget all of your exotic calibers, your expensive rifles, your Hollywood handguns.  In Zombieland, only the toughest, most reliable, and most available guns make sense.  Remember, when the Zombies come stalking, the lights dim, and the factories close, you have only what you can build or scavenge to survive.  Choose well.

Would I Still Buy a Glock? Final Thoughts...

So, for the past week or so, I've posted several reviews comparing new polymer pistols competing with the Glock, and highlighting some of the new features available to shoppers interested in a new handgun today.  All in all, these comparisons show that Glock really has been a bit late to market with new features for its pistols.  Unlike a lot of manufacturers, they haven’t updated their factory accessories.  They still offer only one integrated holster for concealed carry.  Glock didn’t add accessory rails to their pistol until nearly every other manufacturer updated their model lineup for the “lights and lasers” craze.  Glock was the last manufacturer to update their ergonomics for interchangeable back straps to accommodate shooters with smaller or larger hands.  They only recently started offering  a range of sight options for their pistol, which is one of the first changes most Glock owners make on their guns.  Where most manufacturers offer pistols, revolvers, and rifles or carbines, Glock has remained true to the area of their supreme mastery, the semi-auto pistol.

But, and it’s a qualified “but,” I am not sure that I need any of that stuff.  I still use my Glock factory holster for concealed carry, so I don’t need a new retention class holster in my “gun system kit.”  I don’t use a light or laser on my handgun, so an accessory rail lacks purpose for me.  I have never experienced an ammunition failure in my pistol, and I’m very familiar with the slap, rack, and fire technique in the case of a problem, so the “second strike” capability falls flat for me.  I upgraded my sights to excellent TRU-GLO night-sights, but I never found the original sights from Glock as terrible as the press suggests.  Moreover, I’m really accurate with my G19, and cognizant that all of these new features have marketing value, but perhaps little else. 

But, and here’s the qualification that I promised, I do find the standard grip on the Glock to be slightly oversized for my hand. I would like a slightly smaller grip, and the thought of having increased capacity but a shorter barrel to carry and conceal does interest me.  The thing that keeps me from carrying the G27 more frequently is the strange feel of a too-short grip in my hand when I’m called to draw and shoot the gun.

So, I’m glad that with their Gen4 pistols, Glock finally made it to that party, and I remain a Glock fan.  If I were in the market for my first handgun, I would absolutely consider a Springfield XD-M just for the 19 round capacity on the shorter 3.8 barrel frame, which is the only feature on any of the new generation of polymer pistols that seriously intrigues me.   I think consumers are the lucky ones because as manufacturers race to "out-Glock" the Glock, all of the new pistols offer a wider range of features that we would have expected.  Every consumer can find a feature on a pistol that fits their needs and their budget.  For me, I’m sticking with Glock, but I do envy the choices that new pistol shoppers get today.

Would I Still Buy a Glock Today, Part 4

Today's installment covers the final two guns in my polymer pistol review, each of which offers new features for the polymer platform, and compelling options for shooters.

Beretta offers a wide variety of top quality handguns, including civilian versions of the US military’s M9, but their recent developments in their x4 Storm brand most fit the development in the polymer pistol format.  Their Px4 Storm platform offers a modular, hammer fired, polymer frame pistol in multiple sizes and calibers to maximize options for home defense and concealed carry.   The PX4 Storm includes accessory rails, individual grip sizes like the M&P pistol, and adjustable sights. 

When Glock introduced multiple frame sizes, they stared full size, then compact, and finishing with a sub-compact designed for the best concealment.  Beretta shifted the deployment to take advantage of the strong consumer demand for a sub-compact frame, so the most recent PX4 Storm is the mid-sized compact frame in 9mm, .40S&W, and .45ACP.  All of the pistols are offered with a range of Beretta accessories, as aftermarket options haven’t caught up with the newest pistols. 

Personally, I find even the 9mm model in any frame size to be too big for my hands.   Compared to other pistols, the Beretta has a more substantial, even beefy, profile, the bulk of which positioned in the grip.  I can’t comfortably wrap my hand around the PX4 Storm, and remain confused by such a deep grip for a normal capacity double stack magazine.  The XD-M uniformly increases capacity without adding bulk to the grip face compared to the PX4 Storm, so I’m not sure of the ergonomic decisions made by Beretta.

Finally, Taurus offers a selection of polymer pistols including several new additions in their concealed carry and slim line dimensions.  For the purposes of this examination, the Taurus 24/7 model offers the best comparison.  It’s a full-size, polymer frame, striker fired pistol in multiple popular calibers, as well as accessory rails, manual safety, and site options.  While not technically in the same family, Taurus offers different sizes of this platform as the Millennium and Millennium Pro models for more compact carry guns.

The latest generation of 24/7, the G2 models, offers interchangeable back-straps and a trigger safety similar to Glock and other manufacturers while still preserving the thumb activated safety.  Grip geometry reminds me of the venerable H&K USP, another top quality semi-auto pistol.  The 24/7 G2 continues the Taurus tradition of “second strike” capabilities, rare for striker fired pistols that allows the user to pull the trigger again on a round if there’s a misfire in the chamber. 

Much print in gun magazines has been spent on the relative merits of this feature.  No shooter likes to hear “click” when they expect to hear “bang,” so on the surface, this feature should have some value.  But, with modern factory ammunition in such uniform high quality and misfires relatively rare, the actual incidence when this second strike capability comes into play is probably not noticeable.  Why I like the feature is that I can practice mag changes, target and sight alignment, and dry firing repeatedly without racking the slide after every “click.”  It’s a nice feature to practice dry-firing, which is the shortest path to mastering a new pistol.

Would I still buy a Glock today, Part 3

Today, we'll take a look at FN-Herstal's impressive FNP and FNX series as Glock competitors. 

Fabrique Nationale, FN for short, simply means national factory, but when it’s included with Herstal, as in FN Herstal, it represents one of the premier firearms and weapons technology manufacturers in the military, law enforcement, and civilian markets.  In addition to innovative rifles and PDW class guns like the SCAR and P90, they make one of the best new tactical pistols available to consumers, the  FNX system of handguns.  Like the others, FN offers the FNX in a variety of calibers, but so far only in a mid-full sized frame.  Still suitable for concealed carry, these weapons are still serious full size tactical weapons with the highest quality tolerances.

The FNX platform differs from those described above in that they are all hammer-fired pistols in the Browning tradition, and include an ambidextrous decocking lever and thumb safety.   The double action/single action format needs a strong first shot, followed by a racy 3-4 LB single action follow up shot. 

The FNX-9 and -40 remain largely identical, but in .45, FN changes the game.  The highest level of innovation for the FN platform, the FNP-45 Tactical, was developed for the Joint Combat Pistol Program, a competition to replace the M9 pistol currently in service, and to see the innovations available for .45ACP ammunition since the Army retired the 1911 in 1985.  The FNP-45 Tactical offers the same rails and back straps as the other fine FNP models, but the geometry of grip alignment looks and feels more consistent with the venerable Colt 1911 geometry.  Built with accessories in mind, the FNP-45 Tactical includes fully ambidextrous controls, and modifications for suppressor compatibility.  Designed with special operators in mind, the FNP-45 Tactical includes a threaded barrel for suppressor attachment without modification, as well as high profile combat sights designed to function with or without a suppressor attached to the gun.  Finally, the stainless steel slide is built to accommodate micro-dot and red-dot optics without modification, setting this pistol apart from all of the competition.  The pistol appeals to shooters interested in competitive shooting events like IDPA and IPSC, right out of the box.